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Off topic: How do you think UK leaving EU would affect our profession?
Thread poster: Balasubramaniam L.
Preston Decker
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Chinese to English
Never forget Greenland! Jun 28, 2016

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The possibility of an entire country leaving the EU simply hasn't ever come up before, so you can't talk about how the EU usually works.

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I suppose it may not count as an entire country, but: <
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The possibility of an entire country leaving the EU simply hasn't ever come up before, so you can't talk about how the EU usually works.

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I suppose it may not count as an entire country, but: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/uk-isnt-first-leave-european-union-201005963--abc-news-topstories.html
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Huw Watkins
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Possible Jun 28, 2016

John Fossey wrote:

What are the chances of Brexit not even happening? What do you think about the arguments discussed at Will the UK reverse course on Brexit? and another article at The ‘Leave’ Camp Won. That Doesn’t Mean Brexit Will Happen.

[Edited at 2016-06-28 13:53 GMT]


We are absolutely entitled to lobby our local MPs to vote against repealing the 1972 European Communities Act when the next PM introduces such a bill into Parliament. There is absolutely nothing undemocratic about this, it is the traditional route through which all politics is handled in our country. The voice of the people gets heard and then Parliament decides. Each MP is approachable by his or her local constituents.

If people genuinely are against Brexit, I suggest they start writing to their local MPs now. Start organising petitions locally and try to gain some traction with your parliamentary representative - particularly the ones you know already support Remain - which is the vast majority BTW.

It's all explained here: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/stop-brexit-mp-vote-referendum-members-parliament-act-europe

Also, ironically it is in the best interest of the Brexit campaingers NOT to invoke Article 50 from the negotiational point of view. Article 50 is heavily in favour of the EU who have final say over any deals it permits with the UK. Brexiteers could spend years futilely attempting to negotiate terms for exit without this Article and the EU could equally spend years ignoring them.

The most interesting Trade solution I have heard to date consists of forming a rival bloc which includes the likes of Greenland, Norway, Iceland, Faroe Islands and the North Atlantic countries, extending perhaps even as far as Alaska and engulfing Canada and the US. If we did something like that, we could potentially attract the interest of other Scandinavian Countries out of the EU too. A North Atlantic Trade Bloc. I reckon even Scotland may be interested in that too. Heck, we could even invite Russia too eventually if their Eurasian project falls through and they start behaving themselves a bit better.

[Edited at 2016-06-28 15:30 GMT]


 
Huw Watkins
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All this is easily fixed with Treaty Change/Amendment Jun 28, 2016

Josephine Cassar wrote:

First of all, may I start by saying what a sad day Friday 24th June was and what a shock seeing Jo Cox' death gave hope on the last two days before the referendum that peoples might have changed their mind about immigration. Nevertheless, there is another article and, more official that a newspaper, that says English might no longer be an official languag ethe only hope remaining is Scotland joining which will take years: http://www.politico.eu/article/english-will-not-be-an-official-eu-language-after-brexit-senior-mep/. Both Ireland and Malta chose another official language as English had already been chosen. It seems
EU officials are already doing something about it and I know many working in the institutions are very worried, but it is still too early to predict or say how things will turn out.


Ireland will push for English to be an official language of the EU, it would be insanity for them not to.


 
Kay Denney
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France
Local time: 06:03
French to English
entire countries, states whatever ;-) Jun 28, 2016

Preston Decker wrote:

I suppose it may not count as an entire country, but: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/uk-isnt-first-leave-european-union-201005963--abc-news-topstories.html


This is why I used the word "entire" even though of course Greenland did become an entire country, and I see in your link that it did so before leaving, whereas I remembered independence and severance from the EEC as happening together.

Moreover it didn't leave the EU but the EU's predecessor, long before the introduction of the euro and the single market.

I see it took them two years to negotiate, without thorny issues like the European bank and banana curves to be dealt with


 
Balasubramaniam L.
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I don't think Brexit is reversible now Jun 28, 2016

John Fossey wrote:

What are the chances of Brexit not even happening?



and
Huw Watkins wrote:
We are absolutely entitled to lobby our local MPs to vote against repealing the 1972 European Communities Act when the next PM introduces such a bill into Parliament. There is absolutely nothing undemocratic about this, it is the traditional route through which all politics is handled in our country. The voice of the people gets heard and then Parliament decides.


I don't think Brexit is reversible now, the damage has already been done. Also, I also don't think this was a monumental judgment error on the part of the voters. If anything, it was a monumental judgement error on the part of the British politicians, particularly Cameroon, who misjudged the public sentiment when he decided to play a cynical game by calling the referendum, in the full hope that the citizens of UK would reject it, and he would have his cake and eat it too. The citizens however undercut his true intentions by voting for exit, and they had good reasons for this.

The thing is, the social contract between the elites and the hoi-polloi has broken down not only in the UK but also in all over Europe and the US. The rise of Trump in the US and Le Pen in France, the Brexit in UK, and the rise of the right in various other Western countries are only symptoms of this. The common people have been left to fend for themselves in this world of globalisation, while the elites symbolised by the thriving London, have benefited. The common citizens have roundly rejected this arrangement.

Undoing their verdict by using the parliament as a cat's paw would only kill democracy and worsen the situation. True democratic power vests in the people, and parliaments are only practical arrangements to channellise this power. And people have spoken (well a sizeable majority of them) that they want to end the current system.

A brilliant and lucid article by Anush Kapadia, social scientist at IIT, Mumbai, explains all this and should be a must read for all those who want to really understand what has happened in the UK referendum. Here is the link:

http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/why-brexit-is-just-the-first-earthquake-of-its-kind-1423847

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Huw Watkins wrote:

The most interesting Trade solution I have heard to date consists of forming a rival bloc which includes the likes of Greenland, Norway, Iceland, Faroe Islands and the North Atlantic countries, extending perhaps even as far as Alaska and engulfing Canada and the US. If we did something like that, we could potentially attract the interest of other Scandinavian Countries out of the EU too. A North Atlantic Trade Bloc. I reckon even Scotland may be interested in that too. Heck, we could even invite Russia too eventually if their Eurasian project falls through and they start behaving themselves a bit better.


You are forgetting another much larger UK-specific group - the commonwealth of nations consisting of Britain's former colonies - to which UK could turn. It has illustrous members like the US, Canada, India, Australia and many African nations. Many of them despite the scars of colonialism and imperialism are favourably disposed to Britain.

In any case the UK has always had this island mentality and had only one foot on the European continent, and it does not emotionally belong there. The UK leaving EU is therefore good for the EU as it has now become a more cohesive group which can now go ahead with whittling away national sovereignties and forging a European mindset, without which it cannot stay as one unit. Currently EU is in the clutches of big business and finance, from which it will have to extricate itself. The Brexit jolt could push it towards evolving into a genuine people's state, and that could be the real silver lining in the dark clouds that loom over Europe today.

[Edited at 2016-06-28 16:59 GMT]


 
Kay Denney
Kay Denney  Identity Verified
France
Local time: 06:03
French to English
Scotland, India Jun 28, 2016

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2016/jun/28/scottish-mep-given-standing-ovation-in-eu-parliament-video
MEPs reaction to a Scots MEP saying "Scotland didn't let you down, please don't let Scotland down now": absolutely heartwarming! the EU Commission can't treat Scotland shoddily now.



Balasubramaniam L. wrote:

You are forgetting another much larger UK-specific group - the commonwealth of nations consisting of Britain's former colonies - to which UK could turn. It has illustrous members like the US, Canada, India, Australia and many African nations. Many of them despite the scars of colonialism and imperialism are favourably disposed to Britain.



I'd have thought given the Indian stock exchange's major wobble after the Brexit vote announcement that Indians might be rather wary of the UK reaching out to them? and, like, wouldn't they be a bit wary anyway, like, wanting to avoid a repetition of how it panned out last time?


 
Marco Solinas
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Jun 28, 2016



[Edited at 2016-06-28 19:54 GMT]


 
Rita Translator
Rita Translator  Identity Verified
Germany
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German to English
US not part of the Commonwealth Jun 29, 2016

Balasubramaniam L. wrote:


You are forgetting another much larger UK-specific group - the commonwealth of nations consisting of Britain's former colonies - to which UK could turn. It has illustrous members like the US, Canada, India, Australia and many African nations. Many of them despite the scars of colonialism and imperialism are favourably disposed to Britain.



While the US may be favorably disposed to Britain, it is NOT part of the Commonwealth, just to be clear. One major political difference is that the Commonwealth nations have their own heads of government but recognize the Queen (or her representative) as their head of state. The US combines its head of government and head of state in one person: the president.

For some reason I don't see the UK falling back on the Commonwealth for a free trade zone, though.

I've stayed out of this debate so far because I'm a citizen of neither the UK nor the EU. Although I'm an EU resident, I don't believe my translation business will be greatly affected by the Brexit since I do no translating for the EU. As a political scientist with a focus on international organizations, however, I find it fascinating. I wonder if they won't call for new elections and essentially turn that into a second referendum - Johnson on the one hand saying he'll invoke Article 50 and a Labour candidate on the other (unlikely to be Corbyn) saying he or she will not invoke Article 50 if elected.


 
Balasubramaniam L.
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No, that is the commonwealth realms Jun 29, 2016

Kelly Neudorfer wrote:

Balasubramaniam L. wrote:
You are forgetting another much larger UK-specific group - the commonwealth of nations consisting of Britain's former colonies - to which UK could turn. It has illustrous members like the US, Canada, India, Australia and many African nations. Many of them despite the scars of colonialism and imperialism are favourably disposed to Britain.



While the US may be favorably disposed to Britain, it is NOT part of the Commonwealth, just to be clear. One major political difference is that the Commonwealth nations have their own heads of government but recognize the Queen (or her representative) as their head of state. The US combines its head of government and head of state in one person: the president.

For some reason I don't see the UK falling back on the Commonwealth for a free trade zone, though.


What you are referring to is the commonwealth realms consisting of 16 countries which also recognize the Queen of England as their head of the state. The other commonwealth nations, mostly the former colonies in Asia and Africa, do not recognize the Queen as their head of state, and have independant state heads. For example, in India, it is the President (currently Pranab Mukherji).

Again, Britain might not have much of a choice but to make maximum use of whatever political capital it has in the world (and it is dangerously short of that commodity in the present situation) to built a new niche for itself, and the commonwealth nations do constitute an important part of the history of Britain. In its dire times, Britain might have to fall back on this asset.

Already Cameron has made noises about improving ties with India, the former jewel in the imperial crown, post Brexit. Some 800 Indian companies are invested in Britain, with the Tatas being into everything from cars to tea. The Tatas are currently Britain's largest private sector employer.

A Britain self-chucked out of EU might find solace in the arms of its former colonies, and might seek comfort in the old memories of its imperial grandeur in the days of decadence and decline in the present times.


 
Michael Wetzel
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pro-Brexiters, please write to your PMs Jun 29, 2016

What's done is done and if this turns out to be some monumental example of that famously dry British sense of humor, then the EU 28 have some hard days ahead of them.
So, pro-Brexiters, please write to your PMs. The representatives and the UK Parliament should do whatever they think is strategically best for them in terms of the timetable for negotiations, but they should not call the results of the referendum into question. If the UK remains in the EU against the declared will of the maj
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What's done is done and if this turns out to be some monumental example of that famously dry British sense of humor, then the EU 28 have some hard days ahead of them.
So, pro-Brexiters, please write to your PMs. The representatives and the UK Parliament should do whatever they think is strategically best for them in terms of the timetable for negotiations, but they should not call the results of the referendum into question. If the UK remains in the EU against the declared will of the majority, then the crazies all across Europe are going to go truly bonkers.

It has to be obvious that the UK is not going to be allowed to be a part of the common market until the pound shows reliable stability and inflation has had a few years to catch up to the devalued currency. Until then, the UK is unattractive as an export market and dangerous as a low-wage competitor within an EU that is generally not doing well economically. I hope no one was seriously hoping that wouldn't be the case. At the same time, I can't imagine that is going to affect translators directly in any way.

Aside from that, it's fine with me if Brussels and London want to play a little hardball, that makes sense. However, they should be aware that they can both hurt each other and themselves a lot in the process and it is not likely to have much of an impact on the final outcome of the negotiations. It would be a giant shame if those negotiations and their results do not lead to the EU and the UK becoming close allies and mutually interdependent without all of those parts of the EU's interdependency that most English people don't want.
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Dan Lucas
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Exports are not an issue Jun 29, 2016

Michael Wetzel wrote:
Until then, the UK is unattractive as an export market

A thoughtful post, Michael, but I'm not sure this particular argument holds water. European companies - for example those involved in the automotive industry - will continue to export their goods to the UK and generally try to do business as usual and thus translation demand should hold up pretty well. What choice do such companies have?

In the case of, say, Germany, which if I remember correctly exports several tens of billions of euros more to the UK than it imports from the UK (i.e. the UK has a deficit), not continuing to export as usual would have serious economic repercussions for Germany.

As has been repeatedly pointed out in this thread, the UK is a major global economy (in 5th place, slightly ahead of France) and it is simply not realistic in the short- or probably the even medium-term for countries that export large quantities to the UK to suddenly de-emphasise the UK and switch to different markets.

Generally speaking, exports from (say) Germany will be denominated in euro, not sterling. While companies from the UK importing German goods will certainly see some costs rise (again, as already noted) that does not in itself make the market less attractive to German companies over the long term. They get paid the same price, in euro, as they did last week.

From the translation perspective, I would not expect German (or French, or Italian) companies to suddenly require less translation from other languages to English.

Regards
Dan


 
Tom in London
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Universities Jun 29, 2016

FOr those of you who can read Italian:

http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2016/06/29/brexit-a-rischio-12-miliardi-di-sterline-per-le-universita-inglesi-trema-la-ricerca-rette-raddoppieranno-sara-brain-exit/2866518/

The headline, translated, say
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FOr those of you who can read Italian:

http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2016/06/29/brexit-a-rischio-12-miliardi-di-sterline-per-le-universita-inglesi-trema-la-ricerca-rette-raddoppieranno-sara-brain-exit/2866518/

The headline, translated, says (roughly speaking):

"Brexit: £1.2 billion for British universities at risk. The research sector is nervous: "fees will double. It will be brain exit"
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Huw Watkins
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I agree with your sentiments, except one or two points Jun 29, 2016

Michael Wetzel wrote:

What's done is done and if this turns out to be some monumental example of that famously dry British sense of humor, then the EU 28 have some hard days ahead of them.
So, pro-Brexiters, please write to your PMs. The representatives and the UK Parliament should do whatever they think is strategically best for them in terms of the timetable for negotiations, but they should not call the results of the referendum into question. If the UK remains in the EU against the declared will of the majority, then the crazies all across Europe are going to go truly bonkers.

It has to be obvious that the UK is not going to be allowed to be a part of the common market until the pound shows reliable stability and inflation has had a few years to catch up to the devalued currency. Until then, the UK is unattractive as an export market and dangerous as a low-wage competitor within an EU that is generally not doing well economically. I hope no one was seriously hoping that wouldn't be the case. At the same time, I can't imagine that is going to affect translators directly in any way.

Aside from that, it's fine with me if Brussels and London want to play a little hardball, that makes sense. However, they should be aware that they can both hurt each other and themselves a lot in the process and it is not likely to have much of an impact on the final outcome of the negotiations. It would be a giant shame if those negotiations and their results do not lead to the EU and the UK becoming close allies and mutually interdependent without all of those parts of the EU's interdependency that most English people don't want.


It is for all constituents to lobby their local MPs to do what they want. That is the democracy in which we live in the UK and referenda are something really rather alien to us. Yes the voice of the British has been heard, however the normal mechanisms of British democracy still apply. Therefore if you are in favour of Brexit, writing to your local MP is a jolly good idea as it is parliament that is vested with the Sovereignty to do what they think is in the best interest of Britain. The voice of the British people has been heard through the rather alien mechanism of referendum, but nothing else. There may be very very good reasons to delay our exit or not do it at all. THAT, my dear friends, is the democracy that leave voters voted in favour of and 'took back control' of, whether they like it or not. Bala makes a very good point in that "democratic power vests in the people" in a purely theoretical sense, however Britain does not have that democracy and we have to live in the reality before (and behind) us.

Regarding the common market. We are IN the common market. Nothing has changed. It's business as usual. It is entirely in Britain's interest NOT to push button 50 until we have re-positioned ourselves economically and are in the best possible position of strength to approach the negotiating table. Ideally we would time this when the EU enters into a period of turmoil for one reason or another.

I do hope, like you, that a mutually beneficial deal can be worked out however. Some even suggest that we forget the common market altogether. Just go for a simple "I'll trade with you, if you trade with me" model. Who knows, that may work? Honestly, given that the leave vote was basically a vote against free movement of people, I don't see any other real option for the UK.

[Edited at 2016-06-29 09:54 GMT]


 
sailingshoes
sailingshoes
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Investment, not exports Jun 29, 2016

Regarding Michael's point, I would have to agree with Dan that I don't see much problem with exports, except that were sterling to devalue significantly it might leave exporters with a choice between chopping prices to keep sales up or accepting a falloff in sales. But large fluctuations in currency values have been part of everyday life for the last 24 months anyway.

What might be affected is inward investment (including M&A activity), since this might have to be put on hold until
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Regarding Michael's point, I would have to agree with Dan that I don't see much problem with exports, except that were sterling to devalue significantly it might leave exporters with a choice between chopping prices to keep sales up or accepting a falloff in sales. But large fluctuations in currency values have been part of everyday life for the last 24 months anyway.

What might be affected is inward investment (including M&A activity), since this might have to be put on hold until some sort of permanent arrangements have been put in place.

From the translation point of view, were the UK to trigger the exit process this would probably bring about a boom in work from all of the various procedural channels.

[Modificato alle 2016-06-29 10:04 GMT]
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Thomas T. Frost
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Currency hype Jun 29, 2016

Michael Wetzel wrote:
It has to be obvious that the UK is not going to be allowed to be a part of the common market until the pound shows reliable stability and inflation has had a few years to catch up to the devalued currency.


The UK is not a Eurozone member and has no intention of becoming one, so I fail to detect any logic behind that statement. The entire world outside the Eurozone functions well with fluctuating exchange rates. Why should the EU be the only place in the world that cannot do that?

Besides, endless hype and exaggerations have been written about the exchange rate, but the pound/euro exchange rate hasn't even dropped 10 % since the referendum. Presently, it's at the same exchange rate as in the beginning of 2014, and it is much higher than after the financial crisis erupted in 2008. The data is there for all to see on http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html .

It could be argued that it's more of a problem that millions of people have lost purchasing power across southern Europe because of the euro. The internal exchange rate is stable because of the euro, but since these countries still need to adjust to their lagging, internal performances, the result has been loss of competitiveness, and unemployment. But somehow, that doesn't seem to matter for those who are spellbound by the EU.

Michael Wetzel wrote:
Until then, the UK is unattractive as an export market


Not at all. They pay the price, they get the goods or services. Where is the problem?

But the depressed parts of the Eurozone could be said to be less attractive, as more and more people have less and less money there.

Michael Wetzel wrote:
and dangerous as a low-wage competitor within an EU that is generally not doing well economically.


You are not going to fix the EU's problems by banning competition. Scrap the euro, let the countries devalue if they need it, and they will be able to compete again. Until then, they'll get nowhere, and that is the demented euro project's fault, not the UK's.

Michael Wetzel wrote:
It would be a giant shame if those negotiations and their results do not lead to the EU and the UK becoming close allies and mutually interdependent without all of those parts of the EU's interdependency that most English people don't want.


Agree. They should try to agree on some Norwegian/Swiss model. Millions of people outside the UK don't want more than that either; they are just never asked.

Michael Wetzel wrote:
If the UK remains in the EU against the declared will of the majority, then the crazies all across Europe are going to go truly bonkers.


Not only some crazies but millions of sane people too, as that's what has been done too many times before: either to keep voting until the 'right' result is obtained, or to simply ignore the vote (Lisbon Treaty).

The danger is if the EU and its leaders keep pushing their federal pet project without popular consent, as it could lead to turmoil, civil unrest and, in the end, the EU’s breaking up completely. The euro has already achieved to create a fair part of that instability, but it could still get a lot worse. Such instability could lead to serious problems for everybody, translators included.

It would have been much more positive if the EU had focused on making the Single Market work in practice instead of running off on a tangent with political projects there is no popular support for.


 
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