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Off topic: How do you think UK leaving EU would affect our profession?
Thread poster: Balasubramaniam L.
Balasubramaniam L.
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Mining proz.com data Jun 18, 2016

One source of information on how Brexit could affect translation providers is this site itself. Agencies and other stakeholders would be keenly watching the referendum and would be making contingency plans for every likely fallout of the referendum.

Are translators working into the major European languages (German, French, etc), noticing any unsual recruitment activities on the part of agencies, or a spurt in ads for potential jobs in these languages being posted on the job board by
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One source of information on how Brexit could affect translation providers is this site itself. Agencies and other stakeholders would be keenly watching the referendum and would be making contingency plans for every likely fallout of the referendum.

Are translators working into the major European languages (German, French, etc), noticing any unsual recruitment activities on the part of agencies, or a spurt in ads for potential jobs in these languages being posted on the job board by agencies?

If so, it could point towards how agencies are taking the Brexit issue, and whether they expect an increase in translation activities in these languages post a Brexit, and whether they are shoring up their talent pool to be prepared to reap this windfall.

The link to one such assessment on the impact of Brexit on translation was posted by John Fossey. Are you aware of any other such assessments?

[Edited at 2016-06-18 13:31 GMT]
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Tom in London
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Over-estimation Jun 18, 2016

Balasubramaniam L. wrote:

The UK, now out of EU, would fight tooth and nail to see that this does not happen. It will try to create a rift between Germany and France to weaken EU, or egg on Russia or other powers to foment internal dissent in the EU.....


European politics were certainly like that until the Second World War: one country scheming to get an advantage over another. They're still doing that but thanks to the EU they are not doing it militarily. Ultimately Brexit leads back to war between European states that still mistrust one another.


 
Merab Dekano
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Norway? Jun 19, 2016

Sheila Wilson wrote:

I don't go along with comparisons to Norway. They decided immediately it wasn't for them. Since then, they've been paying vast amounts in to have access to the EU markets, without the power of veto etc. OTOH, the UK will be putting a right royal finger (or two fingers, I suppose) up to the EU. Will the EU say "We're still friends. You can share our market." or will they refuse to play ball? And will UK taxpayers agree to pay what Norway is paying? I doubt it.


Norway has about 4 million people and most of the oil found in the world. They still pay very high taxes, which is surprising. They could relax and nothing would really change.

UK has 65 million people and only "some" oil. I guess that pretty much says it all.

EU started as wonderful project but turned into a mess that needs to undergo fundamental changes. I studied EU law (in the UK, by the way). It's deliberately made to be incomprehensible. Legislation is made by appointed, not elected, individuals/bodies and it slips through the layers of democratic control, becoming directly applicable to individuals. In fact, we don't even hear any pre-legislative debate on it as there is no debate (maybe in pubs surrounding Brussels' Schuman area).

If I were a Brit, I would not vote to leave EU but rather to reform it in order to attain:

- Clearer and fairer distribution of competences
- Elected legislative bodies (no more appointing)
- Turning EU parliament into a true legislative body
- Limiting powers of the Council and the Commission
- More independent Court
- Make sure legislative initiatives are openly debated and presented to the general public, no more secrecy
- Simplification of the legislation, so the European citizens can understand it and follow it

Just to name a few.

Opting out will not fix anything and can damage both sides.


 
Thomas T. Frost
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Norway and more Jun 19, 2016

Merab Dekano wrote:

Norway has about 4 million people and most of the oil found in the world.


That's a strange claim. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves , Norway has less than 0.5 % of the world's proven oil reserves. Same as the UK, by the way, they are just fewer people to share it. But what does that have to do with the EU anyway? The EU is not a natural resource that is a magical source of wealth. Wealth generation is, in fact, conspicuously absent from the EU.

Merab Dekano wrote:
They still pay very high taxes, which is surprising.


No, that's not surprising for anyone who knows the Scandinavian character, what distribution of wealth is concerned. Google "Jante law" to find out more about it. But that's another matter.

Merab Dekano wrote:
UK has 65 million people and only "some" oil. I guess that pretty much says it all.


What exactly does that say? It represents about 1 % of the UK's GDP (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-30831718). And then what?

Merab Dekano wrote:
EU started as wonderful project but turned into a mess that needs to undergo fundamental changes. I studied EU law (in the UK, by the way). It's deliberately made to be incomprehensible. Legislation is made by appointed, not elected, individuals/bodies and it slips through the layers of democratic control, becoming directly applicable to individuals. In fact, we don't even hear any pre-legislative debate on it as there is no debate (maybe in pubs surrounding Brussels' Schuman area).

If I were a Brit, I would not vote to leave EU but rather to reform it in order to attain:

- Clearer and fairer distribution of competences
- Elected legislative bodies (no more appointing)
- Turning EU parliament into a true legislative body
- Limiting powers of the Council and the Commission
- More independent Court
- Make sure legislative initiatives are openly debated and presented to the general public, no more secrecy
- Simplification of the legislation, so the European citizens can understand it and follow it

Just to name a few.

Opting out will not fix anything and can damage both sides.


Yes, it would be nice to achieve all that. But the question you fail to ask is why the EU keeps moving the opposite way despite all our nice wishes. The answer is those who run the EU (i.e. not the UK) are interested in nothing of the sort because the goal is a United States of Europe with centralised control, power and privileges for the few at the top, and nation states reduced to mere regions run by Brussels. Their complete disregard for the welfare of ordinary people has already been demonstrated several times: for example referendum results overruled and mass unemployment and poverty in much of the Eurozone, the latter deliberately caused by introducing the euro as a currency that would be unsustainable unless a full political union were introduced. The euro was meant to pave the way for such a union. The euro has ruined the lives of millions of Europeans on the altar of that union, but that means nothing for the cynical leaders of the EU.

So you and others can keep dreaming about a 'reformed' EU, but nobody in power is listening to you. You are irrelevant for them. What exactly makes you think that the UK can suddenly start reforming the EU when all attempts have failed until now is beyond me.


 
Merab Dekano
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Really? Jun 19, 2016

Thomas T. Frost wrote:

The answer is those who run the EU (i.e. not the UK) are interested in nothing of the sort because the goal is a United States of Europe with centralised control, power and privileges for the few at the top, and nation states reduced to mere regions run by Brussels.


I give you all that about natural resources and proven reserves. Not an expert in the subject matter. Probably Norway has much more oil per capita, as you rightly pointed out.

I wish EU moved towards US model, but that's impossible. Too many languages, too many cultures, too much "nationalistic" nonsense. The only way to make EU undergo reforms is simply boycott their invasive and unnecessarily abundant legislation. That needs to be done at national government level, down to every single EU citizen. Then they will listen.

Leaving UE to rot is not the best option. Europe will end up with tens of States, tens of currencies, tens of interests. And who knows some States might want to take over others... (wars???).

If UK leaves, it might be better off in the short run, but in the long run it's in no EU State's interest to split the Union apart. Rather, it's about making it work, because now it isn't working.

Single market? It's a nightmare for every large company's CEO. Not only do you have differences in standards and rule at national level, but also at regional level. US? That really is a single market; the same language, the same currency, mostly the same rules (except maybe California) and predominantly the same culture.

Europe is intrinsically more complicated, but for sure not impossible to make the Union work. After all, it's in our interest. To leave it's an easy way out, but it may well backfire.


 
Balasubramaniam L.
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That sounds very much Gandhian Jun 19, 2016

Merab Dekano wrote:
I wish EU moved towards US model, but that's impossible. Too many languages, too many cultures, too much "nationalistic" nonsense. The only way to make EU undergo reforms is simply boycott their invasive and unnecessarily abundant legislation. That needs to be done at national government level, down to every single EU citizen. Then they will listen.


That is precisely how Gandhiji and the Indian National Congress fought the imperial British in colonial India. Gandhi urged Indians to ignore and politely disobey the unjust laws of the imperial British, which paralysed the entire British administration, and made India almost ungovernable for the British, who after being much enfeebled by the blood-letting of WWII finally quit India. This movement was called savinay avagya abhiyan (or polite and courteous disobeyal movement). This technique was also picked up Martin Luther King in the US to fight apartheid and racial discrimination by the whites.

But you are right on target. If there is any region in the world that Europe with its many languages, nationalities and cultures resembles, it is India, and India has made a success of integrating all this diversity and welding it together into a single nation.

If India, much impoverished by two centuries of colonialism and imperialism, could do it, then certainly a much more affluent Europe can do it, too. What Europe lacks are the selfless and stellar leaders who lead India's freedom movement and then steered the nation on a course of consolidation and integration.

Europe sadly does not have leaders of that calibre, stature and vision. And who is to blame for this? In democracies you get the leaders you deserve. So somehow and somewhere the shortcoming is in the people of Europe who have become small-minded, cynical and incapable of great visions for themselves and for the entire mankind.

There was a time when the world used to follow the path shown by the great minds of Europe, and its great revolutions, sometimes bloody and brutal, threw up values that the entire humanity cherished. Where is that Europe and where are those great European minds?

[Edited at 2016-06-19 18:45 GMT]


 
Thomas T. Frost
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I think we want much the same result, but … Jun 19, 2016

I think most of us here essentially want much the same: an efficient and prospective Europe, which works without an excess of bureaucracy and regulation.

The difference of opinion is mostly about how best to achieve that: by reforming the EU from the inside, or by starting afresh. The optimists keep saying we should try to reform the EU, while the realists claim the EU has already been given so many chances to reform, failing them all, that it's unrealistic. Tony Blair tried to refo
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I think most of us here essentially want much the same: an efficient and prospective Europe, which works without an excess of bureaucracy and regulation.

The difference of opinion is mostly about how best to achieve that: by reforming the EU from the inside, or by starting afresh. The optimists keep saying we should try to reform the EU, while the realists claim the EU has already been given so many chances to reform, failing them all, that it's unrealistic. Tony Blair tried to reform the CAP by giving up some of the British rebate. The result was part of that rebate was lost, while nothing was reformed. If the UK knew how to negotiate with countries like France, maybe there would be some hope, but they are too naïve and trusting. People in Northern Europe often view the EU as a means for the common good, but France views it as a way to further French interests. If even our negotiators don't understand that major cultural difference, France will keep getting its way all the time, just as it has been the case until now.

The main goal with the EU is an ever-closer union. That's what the Treaties say, and that was the foundation of it all – and still is. France had a lot to say in how the whole thing was set up. But France is not exactly a brilliant example of a nation that works well, at least not today. Die Welt had an interesting article today about how the French corporatist model goes back to the 19th century: http://www.welt.de/kultur/article156351951/Die-gluecklichen-Tage-Frankreichs-sind-vorbei.html#disqus_thread . France is in many ways based on plan economy with rigid, centralised control. Small businesses have no important role in such a system, apart from being a source of tax revenue. I experienced the result of that for 15 years until I decided enough was enough, then moved to Germany, where small businesses and self-employment are treated much better than in France, and one doesn’t waste half one’s working week with red tape.

The frightening thing about the EU is how much it reflects the French statist-corporatist system.

Merab Dekano wrote:
I wish EU moved towards US model, but that's impossible. Too many languages, too many cultures, too much "nationalistic" nonsense.


Indeed. There is no common European identity. You can't build a nation upon such differences. So the best you can achieve is mutually beneficial cooperation.

Merab Dekano wrote:
The only way to make EU undergo reforms is simply boycott their invasive and unnecessarily abundant legislation. That needs to be done at national government level, down to every single EU citizen. Then they will listen.


You just can't do that while being a member. The only way to do that is to leave.

Merab Dekano wrote:
Leaving UE to rot is not the best option. Europe will end up with tens of States, tens of currencies, tens of interests. And who knows some States might want to take over others... (wars???).


The other option is to stay in an abusive relationship, as it happens in so many couples where the abused one is afraid of the consequences of leaving and not sure if they can manage alone, and therefore stays, sometimes convinced by the other's promises to change – until next time the other becomes abusive. And so it continues.

Tens of states? Yes. And then? Europe already is made up of tens of states. What's the problem with that?

Tens of currencies would seem a less painful option than up to 50 % youth unemployment. It's an illusion to think you can have one currency for many different countries with different cultures and no common government. The resulting chaos is already obvious.

Tens of interests: that's already the case within the EU.

As for the risk of war, it's worth remembering that it was the humiliation of Germany after the First World War that led to the second. Today, many European Member States are being humiliated by the EU, most of all Greece. But revolt is also brewing in Italy and France. The more unhappy people there are, the higher is the risk of unrest.

Forcing peoples together against their will always ends up in tears sooner or later.

Merab Dekano wrote:
If UK leaves, it might be better off in the short run, but in the long run it's in no EU State's interest to
split the Union apart. Rather, it's about making it work, because now it isn't working.


It's very much in our interest to split this dysfunctional union. It doesn't work and never will, because its purpose is not to work but to centralise power in a gigantic political union. Those who run it more or less appoint themselves like Jean-Claude Juncker. If its purpose was a functional single market, it would be great, but it is not.

Merab Dekano wrote:
Single market? It's a nightmare for every large company's CEO. Not only do you have differences in standards and rule at national level, but also at regional level. US? That really is a single market; the same language, the same currency, mostly the same rules (except maybe California) and predominantly the same culture.


Standardisation of products and many other things is helpful; it's just not the EU's primary purpose. But companies still have to abide by different regulations in different Member States. Germany has one set of rules for website formalities, France another, etc. If a French company has a site targeted German users, and they fail to apply the German rules, they can end up having to pay hundreds of euros in legal fees to whomever points out the lack of conformity (ref. the German 'Abmahnung' system).

In the 23 years the so-called Single Market has existed, relatively little harmonisation has been achieved. It's not their priority. Centralised, political power is.

And what about democracy? Many European expats can't even vote, except for the EU Parliament and municipal elections. They can't vote in their original Member State because they don't live there, and they can't vote where they live because they don't have that state's nationality.

We need something better than the EU. Something that works. If the EU were capable of delivering that, why haven’t they been doing it? Conclusion: they don’t care, because the purpose is the US of E, whether it works or not.
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Merab Dekano
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When poles reverse Jun 19, 2016

Thomas T. Frost wrote:

We need something better than the EU. Something that works.


You are right. However, "borrón y cuenta nueva" as we say it in Spain (something like "starting from scratch"), is it really necessary? And what happens in between?

I once was watching a documentary. There was some evidence discussed about the fact that in the past north and south poles actually have reversed in several occasions. The reversal did not happen overnight; it must have taken several hundreds or thousands of years. This means that during those years the Earth was exposed to solar radiation (no protection at all, as there would ne no magnetic field). Had we lived at that time, we would have died.

The point I'm trying to make is this: why from scratch? Let's fix it and we will not get exposed to "solar radiation". The way to fix it is not by slamming the door behind us.

If the EU falls apart, it will be fiendishly difficult to scramble a brand new union, and things may go down to just any road. What is clear is that there will be tens of years of political skirmish and protectionism going on. My generation will certainly be gone until Europe decides to join forces again. I don't want that to happen.



[Edited at 2016-06-19 19:57 GMT]


 
Dan Lucas
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If the threat of Brexit cannot achieve reform, what possibly can? Jun 19, 2016

Merab Dekano wrote:
If I were a Brit, I would not vote to leave EU but rather to reform it in order to attain [wishlist]... Opting out will not fix anything and can damage both sides.

There will be no reform. I don't see that Cameron won any significant compromises from the EU and my understanding is that what gains he was promised will, at least, in part need to be ratified.

In other words, despite the EU being within a whisker of losing its second-largest economy, its largest or second-largest military power and one of its most significant diplomatic teams, it has refused to concede anything of importance to forestall this.

If the EU is not collectively willing to reform itself to prevent Brexit, what does it take? When will it happen? The answer is never. It will never implement significant self-reform; a bureacracy of this size does legislate itself out of existence.

To be sure, there is now talk of changes and a need for introspection, but if Remain wins that will quietly die down as the months go by. A year from now it will be business as usual.

I'm for Europe and I'm for economic cooperation, but against the EU as it is today. I expect Remain to win the referendum vote on Thursday. However, if the result is close then over the medium term this "defeat" may, by showing people what is possible, actually energise and encourage those who wish to leave the EU, both in the UK and in Europe.

Regards
Dan


 
Merab Dekano
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You need to be in to make the changes happen Jun 19, 2016

Dan Lucas wrote:

If the EU is not collectively willing to reform itself to prevent Brexit, what does it take? When will it happen? The answer is never. It will never implement significant self-reform; a bureacracy of this size does legislate itself out of existence.


Too much power has been given to "technocrats" as it seems they know better how to fix the world as opposed to the "stupid" people of Europe.

EU is the body who actively militated in all Member States to avoid referendums on the Treaty of Rome (the alleged EU constitution), as if it were ok to circumvent peoples' opinion. Are the Swiss really that stupid? Is Switzerland that bad a nation? Because they do ask their people on almost every aspect of their lives.

The optimal way to push EU to implement changes is by ignoring the way the system works today. And it needs to be done while you are in, not from the outside. There needs to be a smooth transition towards more democracy, more direct participation of the EU citizens (and long time residents), more decision makers/legislators who are directly elected and accountable to their citizens, so we don't read in the newspapers our money has been "donated" (as a result of a secret meeting) to another State who by far did not fix the refugee problem. Rather, it killed some of them today when they where trying to cross the border. I, personally I, want to be consulted before these decisions are made. And I'm sure so do you.

if UK (then Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, etc.) is out, it will be out, i.e. with no means to influence any changes whatsoever.


 
Dan Lucas
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Can't see it myself Jun 19, 2016

Merab Dekano wrote:
You need to be in to make the changes happen

That argument only makes sense if you can demonstrate substantial reform in the past, but thirty years of arguing for change in the EU has had no apparent effect. Instead, EU expenditures (funded by tax payers like me and you) rise at a rate faster than inflation.

That's the problem: if reform worked, we'd not be talking about Brexit. The dillusionment we see today in Britain and other countries is the cumulative result of decades of disenchantment with the prospects of EU reform.
if UK (then Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, etc.) is out, it will be out, i.e. with no means to influence any changes whatsoever.

Any significant country - and in the context of Europe, Britain is indeed significant - has a chance to influence those countries around it. Britain influenced European nations (and vice versa) for centuries before the EU even existed. I see no basis for believing that tradition will come to a screeching halt. The basic laws of trade and diplomacy do not change.

Dan


 
Thomas T. Frost
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'Sabotage' would lead to de facto exit Jun 19, 2016

Merab Dekano wrote:
The optimal way to push EU to implement changes is by ignoring the way the system works today. And it needs to be done while you are in, not from the outside.


We have no leaders with enough character to do anything else than wag their tails at Brussels' orders. And even if we had, the moment a nation behaved like this, it would be clobbered by Brussels in several ways. They could withhold money, block trade and a lot more. Doing this would most likely end up becoming a de facto exit. This is just not realistic. They aren't going to abandon their federal union because of the UK.

Merab Dekano wrote:
if UK (then Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, etc.) is out, it will be out, i.e. with no means to influence any changes whatsoever.


The UK has been voted down several times. That effectively amounts to zero influence in such matters.

In the real world, I think the only chance of changing things is that a major country like the UK leaves. I see it as a positive step towards renewal, not a negative 'slamming-the-door'. Just like getting rid of an abusive or alcoholic partner is a step towards a better future, even though it can be difficult in the short term. The 50th time that abusive partner promises to look into improvement, one would be a fool to believe them. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

A lot of the Single Market achievements can be preserved, but an exit will be a chance not only to get rid of all the unwanted stuff but also to make new agreements with other countries, for example improving various types of free movement between countries that left the EU and non-European countries, for example New Zealand, Australia and Canada, countries with which the UK shares a lot. There's a whole world out there that isn't slowing sinking to the bottom like the EU.

What is being discussed now are things like a banking union (meaning countries that run their economies well would have to participate when banks in less well run countries went bust) and common unemployment insurance (so workers and companies in well-run countries would have to pay for countries that are unable and/or unwilling to reform their countries – France, for example. France (I mean the French elite) would also be more than happy to get taxes raised elsewhere in the EU to make the other Member States as uncompetitive as France. France doesn't think in improvements, it thinks of putting balls and chains on others.

But people in Northern Europe would most likely begin to revolt over first behaving responsibly and then having to pay for countries behaving irresponsibly.

The EU isn’t even protecting its borders. We were assured the external borders would be secure once the internal Schengen borders were abolished, but the external borders are wide open, and we don’t even know how many terrorists and other criminals have been let in, hidden among refugees. It is a gigantic shambles, and the EU is not dealing effectively with it.

Then again, how could anyone believe an organisation that moves all its MEPs and much of its staff, as well as mountains of documents in convoys of lorries, from Brussels to Strasbourg and back once a month at our expense would be capable of dealing properly with anything?


 
Gabriele Demuth
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It has already started to happen! Jun 20, 2016

Michael Wetzel wrote:

An afterthought: Exchange rates are very important for lots of freelancers and I would guess that the UK leaving the EU would probably hit the British pound much harder than the euro and hurt both against the American dollar (at least until November) and against genuinely healthy currencies. That also seems likely to happen much more quickly than any political changes. So I suppose that would actually present a short-term advantage for UK freelancers/agencies working with international clients. I feel sorry for the Swiss though, who get punished for doing things right.


[Edited at 2016-06-17 07:05 GMT]


As a good proportion of my income comes from Europe, I can't say that I mind.

Although the bigger picture ... ?

[Edited at 2016-06-20 05:44 GMT]


 
Michael Wetzel
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The bigger picture ... Jun 20, 2016

That's exactly what I don't get. Anyone that thinks they have any real idea of the implications that a Bremain or Brexit will have on the UK, the EU, and the world is completely crazy. A Brexit will immediately weaken both currencies (= help exporters of services in both of those countries in the short term, with the pound likely to be weakened more than the euro) and, beyond that, who is to say?

That was actually my main motivation for my last post: People have gotten so riled up a
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That's exactly what I don't get. Anyone that thinks they have any real idea of the implications that a Bremain or Brexit will have on the UK, the EU, and the world is completely crazy. A Brexit will immediately weaken both currencies (= help exporters of services in both of those countries in the short term, with the pound likely to be weakened more than the euro) and, beyond that, who is to say?

That was actually my main motivation for my last post: People have gotten so riled up about this that someone was actually brutally murdered on the street, partly or entirely because of the extremism and alarmism surrounding this debate. Now, maybe the attacker was a ticking (mentally ill or radical-right) time bomb who would have found something else to set him off in the next few years, even if it hadn't been this. That remains to be seen, but I think it would help a lot if people would take their own opinions, facts, and visions with a healthy dose of skepticism.

If most British people want to leave the EU and it is impossible to elect a government that will leave the EU, then it is probably fair to hold a referendum, regardless of Cameron's motives.

To be honest, I personally don't feel like the UK really belongs in the EU. They are always complaining and getting special treatment and just don't really fit in. If they want to go, then they should. And maybe the fact (vs. the threat) of a Brexit will shake things up in the EU in a good way.
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Dan Lucas
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The planet goes on being round Jun 20, 2016

Michael Wetzel wrote:
Anyone that thinks they have any real idea of the implications that a Bremain or Brexit will have on the UK, the EU, and the world is completely crazy.

One of the best comments so far in this thread. For all the cant being hurled about, we just don't know. None of the politicians, academics or economists know, on either side, whatever their beliefs or credentials.

I remember how vociferous the consensus (backed by the great and good) was that the UK should join the euro, 20 years ago, and how mistaken that consensus was.

Both remaining and exiting the EU have attendant risks and rewards. Despite the rising hysteria, particularly in the Remain camp, neither option will lead to armageddon. Whatever the outcome, on Friday morning the world will wake up and find that the planet continues to turn.

Regards
Dan


 
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