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English to Korean: Forbes Korea Oct. 2009 Detailed field: Journalism
Source text - English OutFront The Gloom in China's Glowing Economic Stats
Daniel Fisher, 09.07.09, 12:00 AM ET
Its glowing economic statistics may mask a debt-fueled asset bubble.
A curious article appeared in People's Daily, China's state-owned newspaper, a few weeks ago. It detailed how citizens were ridiculing a government statistic suggesting wages had risen an improbable 13%. According to the paper, the new sarcastic catch-phrase circulating on the Internet is "I've been given a raise."
China bulls beware: When the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China questions the country's economic statistics, investors should take cover.
Officially, China is firing on all cylinders. The China National Bureau of Statistics reported gross domestic product increased 7.1% in the first half of 2009 over year-earlier levels, down only slightly from the 9% growth rate for all last year. Sales of textiles, cement, soft drinks, tractors and automobiles grew at double-digit rates. The Shanghai stock market is up 86% since January.
But behind those numbers is an unprecedented expansion of the country's money supply. The government has poured $586 billion into a stimulus program it started this year to combat the world financial crisis. Banks have issued new business loans at four times the rate of last year. If that spending stops โ and there are hints that the government is trying to put on the brakes โ China's economic growth rate will stall. It might fall all the way to zero, says Albert Edwards, global strategist at France's Sociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale.
If China falters, it would remove one of the most important props supporting whatever economic recovery is under way. "A slowdown in China โ especially one that is sudden and sharp โ will have a huge negative effect on the U.S. corporate sector," says Yasheng Huang, who directs the China lab at MIT's business school.
Part of the effect would be psychological. Stock market gains in China likely have bolstered markets in the U.S. and Europe, as investors are made bolder by the paper wealth they've accumulated in their international mutual funds. "Of all the major bubbles I've seen over the last few years, this is the one investors really want to believe in, because there's so little else to believe in," says Edwards. "The Chinese story falling apart will be a far bigger shock to investors than if the U.S. doesn't go into recovery."
China is the second-largest trading partner with the U.S. after Canada, taking in $33 billion of U.S. exports through July of this year and sending back $130 billion of stuff to the U.S. Its voracious purchases of commodities, industrial materials and technology have helped prop up the shares of Texas Instruments, Caterpillar and Microsoft, all up more than 60% from their lows this year. China is an important source of future growth. While it represented only 4% of Boeing's $61 billion in revenue last year, for example, Chinese orders make up 8% of its backlog. Caterpillar gets only about 5% of revenue from China now but wants to increase those sales 60% by 2012.
China has been a big contributor to the economic recovery "because there's basically no growth anywhere else," says Michael Lewitt, editor of the HCM Market Letter. A China bear, he's urging investors to stay away from U.S. (and Chinese) stocks. Buy well-secured bonds until the U.S. economy is clearly recovering on its own, he says.
China's glowing economic statistics may be deceiving. Consumer sales, for example, are supposedly up 15% this year โ evidence, for bulls, of China's recovery. But China's figures include wholesale numbers, so it is tough to know if consumers are buying goods or manufacturers are stuffing warehouses with inventory. The government accounts for as much as 40% of sales, meaning much of the increase may be due to unsustainable government spending. Market commentator Marc Faber of Hong Kong estimates that China's real underlying GDP growth rate is only 3% โ not the 7.1% the government claims.
An ominous sign: Electricity demand has been falling in many parts of the country, according to MIT's Huang. For electricity consumption to go backwards in a supposedly fast-growing economy is "an extraordinary pattern, a pattern, I might add, that is absent in all other countries," he says via e-mail from Beijing, where he is writing a book about China's economic statistics. The opaque Chinese economy may harbor falling consumer prices and corporate profits, he says. Bad news for lenders.
Chinese banks extended $757 billion in new loans through April of this year, according to a Fitch Ratings analysis, four times last year's level and equal to 17% of 2008 GDP. Huang thinks much of that money went into commodities, construction and other assets vulnerable to falling prices.
Yet some China hands insist the recovery is real. Nicholas Lardy, a China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, notes that researchers have known for years that China includes wholesale figures in its retail sales estimates. "Everyone holds their noses and uses it," Lardy says. Falling electricity consumption could also have a not-so-alarming explanation: The least-efficient manufacturers are shutting down.
But even Lardy worries that the government's stimulus program could eventually inflate an asset bubble rather than stimulate true growth.
SoGen's Edwards calls China's levitating economy "an unsustainable paradigm." Factories are producing goods that won't be purchased by domestic or export consumers, he says. The government investment in commodities and equipment will only exacerbate the worldwide production glut. If China's export machine falters badly enough, he says, China could even devalue its currency. That would hurt U.S. companies dependent upon exports for growth in sales and profits.
A Chinese devaluation could in turn kick off a vicious spiral of devaluations around the world as other countries seek to protect their exports by making their currencies cheaper. How likely is this? The last time it happened was in the Great Depression. Back then, Edwards says, "whoever devalued the slowest had the worst recession."
Translation - Korean OutFront ๋จ๊ฑฐ์ด ์ค๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ ์ ๊ฐ์ถฐ์ง ์ง์ค
2009๋ 9์ 7์ผ Daniel Fisher ๊ธฐ์
PROFESSIONAL TRANSLATOR, TECHNICAL/BUSINESS WRITER, DOCUMENTATION CONSULTANT, MARKETING/SALES MANAGER
Professional, all-round translator and technical writer with a 13-year record of successful translating/proofreading/editing all subjects of all fields for public and private-sector clients such as Adobe, BMC, Avid, BlackBerry, McAfee, HP, VMware, PTC, Siemens, Symantec, Pilz, EMC, NCsoft, LG, SAMSUNG, Forbes, Microsoft, etc.
Backed by strong credentials and a proven history of on-time, and high-quality project completions.
Handling it without falling-off in quality no matter how large your project is and how tight its schedule is.
VIDEO SUBTITLE LOCALIZATION PROJECT MANAGEMENT (Korean to Multiple Languages)
CJ ENMย (http://www.cjem.net/business/mediaContent)ย YouTube Video Clip Subtitle Localization Project Scheduling Korean to English, Spanish, Indonesian, Thai, Japanese (40,000 min volume)ย ย Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2019
Whynot Mediaย (http://whynot.video/29)ย Full Episode Video Subtitle Localization Project Scheduling Korean to English, Japanese (1,500 min volume)ย Sep. 2019 to Dec. 2019
Paik's Cuisine YouTube Channel (๋ฐฑ์ข ์์ ์๋ฆฌ๋น์ฑ Paik's Cuisine)ย Full Episode Video Subtitle Localization Project Scheduling Korean to English, Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese, Indonesian (1,000 min volume) Aug. 2019 to Dec. 2019
JOURNALISM TRANSLATION (English to Korean)
Forbes Korea (Monthly magazine published by Joongang Daily) Sep. 2007 to Feb. 2011
Korea Herald (Daily Newspaper) column written by President of KRIHS (Korea Research Institute of Human Settlements) May. 2009
GENERAL/TECHINICAL TRANSLATION (English to Korean)
iSii Process Computer (http://www.hoogendoorn.nl) Plant Growth Management System: User Help Guide & SW User Interface (150k words) Jul. 2012 to Oct. 2012
SIEMENS (http://www.siemens.co.kr) Manufacturing Automation Solution Marketing Brochure Mar. 2009 to Feb. 2017
PILZ Korea (Global Industrial Safety Automation Company, http://www.pilz.com) Website Localization Jul. 2009 to Feb. 2017
CBRE Global Real Estate Consulting Company (http://www.cbre.com) Web Content Localization Dec. 2011
Maryland Live! Casino Casino & Entertainment Company (http://www.marylandlivecasino.com) Web Content Localization Aug. 2012 to Sep. 2012
ZoeMob (http://www.zoemob.com) Online-based Location Service Provider For Personal Safety - Web Content Translation Nov. 2011
BioEdit Co., Ltd. (http://www.bioedit.co.uk) Online English Editing Service Provider (specialized in medicine and life science) Web Content Translation Oct. 2011
Airpush.com (http://www.airpush.com) Google Android-based Advertisement Network Solution Airpush web content, SDK Installation Instruction & FAQ Translation Aug. 2011 to Feb. 2017
GE Energy (http://www.gepower.com) Safety-related Internal Document Translation Mar. 2011 to Nov. 2011
PricewaterhouseCoopers Hong Kong (http://www.pwchk.com) Accounting Audit Instructions Apr. 2011
LOUIS VUITTON Korea 2008 Sales Operation Report Dec. 2008
OECD (http://www.oecd.org) Tourism Strategy Report Nov. 2008
Mr. Sergio Arzeni, Director of the Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs and Local Development Nov. 2008
LG Electronics (http://www.lge.co.kr) Notebook User Manual Jul. 2009 to Dec. 2010
Academic Journal about the waterfront space utilization Aug. 2010
Booklet of the International Conference on Social Welfare (organized by the Korean Association of Social Workers, http://www.welfare.net) Nov. 2008
Gangwha Island (S. Korea) Travel Guide Book published by Joongang Daily (major newspaper in S. Korea) Apr. 2010
SAMSUNG Electronics: Procurement System Manual Nov. 2008
SUNMOON University: Social Welfare-related Thesis Nov. 2008
KONGJU National University (Kongju, S. Korea): History-related Thesis Oct. 2008
KANGWON National University (Chuncheon, S. Korea)/Gyeonggi Provincial Forest Environment Institute (Gapyeong-gun, S. Korea): Forest Biology Thesis Oct. 2008
GENERAL/TECHNICAL TRANSLATION EDITING, PROOF-READING & LINGUISTIC QA (English to Korean)
Howrse (on-Line Game Published by OWLIENT, http://www.howrse.com) Localization Project Jul. 2011 to Feb. 2017 (English to Korean)
Three Kingdoms Online (Facebook on-Line Game Published by KoramGame, http://www.koramgame.com) Localization Project Jul. 2010 (English to Korean)
Microsoft XBOX 360 Game: Hydrophobia Localization Project Apr. 2010 (English to Korean)
AION (on-Line Game published by NCSoft, http://www.ncsoft.com) Localization Project Oct. 2009 (Korean to English)
ArchLord (on-Line Game published by NHN Games, http://www.nhngames.com) Localization Project Jun. 2009 (English to Korean)
TECHNICAL WRITING (in English)
SAMSUNG Electronics Multi-Functional Printer User Manual (SCX-3200 Series, CLX-3180 Series, CLP-3175 Series) Oct. 2009 to Feb. 2010
LG Electronics Smartphone Web-based User Manual (VS-700) Aug. 2011
TECHNICAL WRITING (in Korean)
LG Electronics Smartphone PRADA 3.0 Web-based User Manual (SU-540, KU-5400) Dec. 2011 to Dec. 2012
LG Electronics Smartphone Web-based User Manual (SU-640, LU-6200) Aug. 2011 to Oct. 2011
XML-BASED INFORMATION SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE DEVELOPMENT
LG CNS Smartphone Embedded Manual Development - DITA-based Single Sourcing: InDesign to Arbortext, XML to HTML, HTML to Android apps. Jul. 2011 to Dec. 2013
SAMSUNG Fire & Marine Insurance XML-based Content Publishing System Implementation โ Automated Content Publishing, DITA-based Content Reuse Model, SW: Arbortext Editor with Styler, MathFlow plug-in Sep. 2011 to Jan. 2012
SAMSUNG Electronics Content Management System(CMS) Infrastructure Development Project: XML-based Document Authoring System For Service Manual, SW: Arbortext Editor With Styler Apr. 2010 to Dec. 2010
EDUCATION BACKGROUND
M.A. in English Simultaneous Interpretation and Translation Aug. 2009
Dissertation: โEnglish-Korean Translation: Stone Age Economics, Marshall Sashlinsโ
B.E. in Architectural Engineering Feb. 2006
Thesis: โIntegration between CAD/CAM System and IT in Construction Engineeringโ
LANGUAGE SKILL
Korean โ Native Language
English โ Native-like Level
CERTIFICATION
SDL Trados Studio 2019 for Translators Advanced
SDL Trados Studio 2019 for Project Managers
SDL MultiTerm 2019 For Translators and Project Managers