Dec 3, 2013 03:05
10 yrs ago
10 viewers *
English term

an order of magnitude

English Tech/Engineering Engineering (general)
I was reading some paper on quantitative risk analysis and found the paragraph below:

Considering this uncertainty, the results of quantitative risk analysis should be considered accurate only to an order of magnitude and should be supported by sensitivity studies or similar.

I read this over and over again and I understand "an order of magnitude" means "ballpark"
Could you advice me if I get it wrong.
Thanks in advance.

Another text using this word is:

Be aware that the result of a quantitative risk analysis must be interpreted as an order of magnitude and not as precise number due to the influence of uncertainties.

Responses

2 hrs
Selected

Approximation within the range 10 to the 1

I mean 10 with a little 1 superscript next to it. ;o)

It's not exactly ballpark, in fact we use this a lot when dealing with numbers from labs. Within an order of magnitude often means that the result can be multiplied by ten and still be considered within the same range (i.e. we expect a variation of up to x 10); within 2 orders of magnitude means you have a range of x 100, and so on.

I wouldn't say that it is a rough approximation in your case if this is a QRA as it is very important to know whether the figures fall within the standards, norms and limits that you are measuring against.

Although it can, of course, be receded by "rough" or "approximate"... :o)

HTH

Pipeline QRA (quantitative risk assessment) | Pipelines OZ
pipelinesoz.wordpress.com/.../pipeline-qra-quantitative-risk-assessment/‎
Sep 14, 2012 - It is possible to do a thoughtful pipeline QRA, such as the work… ... with Australian rates being at least an order of magnitude lower than those .

Stepwise quantitative risk assessment as a tool for characterization ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10849169
by SJ van Gerwen - ‎2000 - ‎Cited by 45 - ‎Related articles
Stepwise quantitative risk assessment as a tool for characterization of microbiological ... First, risks are assessed broadly, using order of magnitude estimates.
Peer comment(s):

agree Didier Fourcot : "An" order of magnitude is by itself approximate, but not only by multiplication: if the full scale between the highest and the lowest possible value is 10, then it could be 3 times more or 3 times less than the value quoted (centered interval)
3 hrs
disagree B D Finch : I think that you misunderstand the colloquial way this expression is being used in the source text.
9 hrs
disagree Polangmar : If the result is multiplied by ten, it will be greater by one order of magnitude so it will NOT be within the same range.
14 hrs
agree Istvan Abosi : I agree with Polangmar, it is multiplication by 10.
4 days
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4 KudoZ points awarded for this answer. Comment: "Thank you for such as clear explanation. I thoroughly understood the meaning."
25 mins

here a kind of rough approximation

The precise meaning of the term:

An order of magnitude is a scale of numbers with a fixed ratio, often rounded to the nearest ten.
The orders of magnitude are written in powers of ten. For example, the order of magnitude of 1500 is 3, since 1500 may be written as 1.5 × 103.
Differences in order of magnitude can be measured on the logarithmic scale in "decades" (i.e., factors of ten).[1] Examples of numbers of different magnitudes can be found at Orders of magnitude (numbers).
We say two numbers have the same order of magnitude of a number if the big one divided by the little one is less than 10. For example, 23 and 82 have the same order of magnitude, but 23 and 820 do not." (John Baez)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude
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-1
11 hrs

within very broad limits

"Order of magnitude" is being used here colloquially, rather than scientifically. It means that because of the particular uncertainty being referred to in this case, the results of quantitative risk analysis can only give a vague indication and need to be supplemented with other information.
Peer comment(s):

disagree Polangmar : This is not a text for the general public - and "order of magnitude" is NOT used here colloquially.
4 hrs
Of course it isn't for the ''general public". However; the expression is being used colloquially. Anyone familiar with the sort of linguistic community involved would recognise that.
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